How a Super Bowl MVP Win Impacts Card Prices: Historical Trends and 2026 Predictions
The Highlights
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It’s no secret that popular events and public perception can nudge sports card prices. Similarly, mega events like the Super Bowl are veritable market makers, whether you’re holding a rookie card for last season’s first draft pick, or the last decade’s most impressive QB.
But how big is that impact, really? How has the Super Bowl affected prices in the past, and what might that impact look like in 2026? Find out with this Giant Sports Cards guide.
The Mechanics of an MVP Win
An MVP win in this year’s Super Bowl will impact player card values in three ways.
Instant Visibility
The last Super Bowl averaged 127.7 million viewers over its runtime. From experienced collectors to newcomers who just decided to buy a football hobby box during the last Coca-Cola ad, this event has a unique way of making legends out of stars.
This visibility, both directly and indirectly, pulls up card values. Some collectors will pick up a hobby box specifically looking for this year’s MVP. Others will be more incentivized to hang on to that player’s rookie card even if they weren’t originally targeting it.
The end result? More scarcity in circulation and a higher premium on those rookie cards.
Legacy
A player winning the MVP title isn’t a momentary victory. Mahomes will always be (at least) a three-time MVP winner, and that stays with collectors. The legacy impact is especially important if we’re considering the long-term appreciation of football card prices for MVPs.
Supply-Demand Imbalance
The visibility we mentioned earlier has a well-known impact on the supply-demand relationship. Sports card boxes tend to boom and peak during the Super Bowl season, and companies like Panini typically can’t (or don’t want to) match the increased demand with more units.
The oldest law of economics always applies. Match high demand with low supply, and you have MVP prices shooting through the roof.
Historical Trends
Patrick Mahomes - 2023 MVP
Can’t hurt to start with a three-peat, right? Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to career-defining victories, and his rookie card prices reflect that familiarity.
One of the biggest shifts in card prices happened during the 2023 Super Bowl. Mahomes’ 2017 Optic Base (PSA 10) was priced at around $900 in Jan 2023. By the end of February that year, the card was sitting at around a comfortable $1,500.
Jalen Hurts - 2025 MVP
As far as sports trading cards and the NFL are concerned, most collectors are probably still thinking about the way Hurts lit up the Chiefs at the 2025 Super Bowl. That surge in interest for the Eagles QB plays out perfectly across some of his RC price trends.
The ungraded 2020 Panini Prizm Jalen Hurts Orange Lazer parallel saw a steep rise from $30.50 in January 2025 to $42.50 in February 2025. This price point also tapered off from the very next month, making Feb 2025 the best time to sell for collectors.
Joe Burrow - 2022 Super Bowl Loss
We’ve seen two cases where rookie cards for MVPs appreciate in value, but does the opposite also apply to the losing side? Do star players lose value after the big game?
The answers to those questions make Joe Burrow an interesting case study for collectors. Burrow’s football card values increased by an average of 10% after his Super Bowl loss. Why?
- Avid speculation between collectors drove prices up.
- Most buyers believed Burrow was underpriced and considered the Super Bowl to be the perfect time to buy.
- His individual performance in the game helped him stand out even amongst the winners.
Predictions for 2026
We included that last example to make it clear that the big game isn’t exactly the end-all, be-all for player card values, even if it does clearly help. A myriad of factors go into determining the value of the cards in a Prizm football box.
Let’s keep those in mind as we look at predictions for 2026.
Sam Darnold - Seahawks Win
Sam is more or less the ‘safe pick’ for MVP if two conditions are fulfilled:
- The Seahawks win (which they’re favored to do).
- Darnold gets a mistake-free game.
If these conditions are met, you’re going to see Darnold’s redemption arc fulfilled and a large surge in collector interest. Darnold's rookie card prices were already surging in 2024, and you’re likely going to see his 2018 rookie Donruss sports card hit all-new peaks.
Drake Maye - Patriots Win
Calling the Patriots ‘underdogs’ feels crazy considering their history with the Super Bowl, but that’s exactly the position they’re in this year. That’s not great for the team, but it’s an awesome opportunity for collectors.
Maye is already set to be the second-youngest QB to start in the Super Bowl. If the dual-threat can fight off the nerves and penetrate Seattle’s ironclad defense, he’s going to be an easy lock for MVP.
If that happens, you’ll want to keep an eye on his most wanted RC: the 2024 Donruss Optic Downtown. Ungraded, this card floats between $1,200 and $1,500, while PSA 8s and above can 4x that price.
Lock In Your Winner with Giant Sports Cards
Whether you’re a Seahawks true believer or rooting for the underdogs from New England, Giant Sports Cards has you covered with a Super Bowl-worthy collection.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Do Super Bowl MVP wins affect sports card prices?
Yes. An MVP win generally causes certain sports card prices to increase, but there may be exceptions to the trend based on market speculation.
What is the best time to collect cards for Super Bowl MVPs?
Card prices tend to peak immediately before and after the actual event. October-December is the sweet spot, but earlier is even better if you’re looking to sell for a profit.
Who is favored to win the Super Bowl MVP in 2026?
Sam Darnold is considered a safe pick since the Seahawks are favored to come out on top, but Drake Maye could still steal the title if the Patriots pull ahead.