How Regular Season Performance Impacts Player Card Worth: An In-Depth Analysis

It’s well-known that season performance affects sports card valuations, but how marked is the impact, and what kind of effect does that performance have relative to other factors? Giant Sports Cards did the deep dive, so you don’t have to. Unbox Your Love Of The Game™ with this quick guide.

What Affects a Sports Card’s Worth?

Before we look at season performance, it’s worth taking a step back and considering the fundamentals of sports card boxes and their valuation. After all, a player’s performance isn’t the only factor determining their sports card pricing.

• Rarity: This is almost always going to play the deciding role in card values. Cards with extremely short print runs can be multiple times more expensive than high-quality parallels, even in poor quality. The most expensive rookie card of all time, the 1914 Baltimore News Babe Ruth, is an excellent example of this trend.
  
  
• Popularity and Demand: Performance is connected with a player’s popularity and demand, but these things can also be determined off the playing field. For instance, a player’s social media presence can deeply impact a card’s worth. Ohtani is a good example here. He’s a great player, but his card values are significantly higher than competitors with better season averages.
  
  
• Market Trends: Player values can be driven by speculation, just like any other asset. Certain high-value collectors prefer to treat sports cards as appreciating assets, and they’ll buy large quantities of certain player cards before huge events, like the World Series or All-Stars.

Before and After: A Deep Dive

Now that we’ve learned about the other factors driving card prices, let’s examine how performance impacts prices. We’ll consider three players from three different leagues and look at how their season performance changed their card’s worth.

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry is currently one of the most popular players in the entire NBA, which might make you think his cards have always been incredibly valuable. There has, however, been a notable shift in his rookie card prices before and after his NBA Finals win with the Warriors in June 2022.

Curry put in a generational performance to help the Warriors clinch the win with 31.2 Points Per Game (PPG). Let’s see how that translated into his rookie card’s worth.

This Topps sports card’s value increased by 62% following Curry’s NBA Finals win (allowing a bit of time to account for price lag.) Interestingly, this price movement outperformed the CardLadder Index (which tracks sports cards as a whole) for the same duration, which fell by 4%.

Bryce Harper

Bryce Harper offers a look at the other side of player values and season performance. Harper and the Phillies lost the 2022 World Series to the Astros, but his card worth didn’t respond to the loss as you might expect.

So, why would a player’s rookie card appreciate 27% in value despite their team losing the World Series?

• Individual Performance: Baseball card boxes and individual card prices can be swayed by a player’s performance rather than the team as a whole. The Phillies might have lost the big game, but Harper’s performance (a 1.351 OPS) boosted his card’s prices despite the loss.
  

• Popularity: This is potentially a case of popularity having a bigger impact on prices than season performance. Bryce Harper is one of the most popular modern baseball players, and it’s possible that acted as a shield against a declining card worth.

Patrick Mahomes

The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has long been a hot commodity for hobby case buyers everywhere. A huge reason behind his popularity is his star performance in the Super Bowl LVII on February 12, 2023. Mahomes kept playing even after damaging his ankle in the second quarter, narrowly leading the team to a win against the Eagles and winning the MVP award.

Let’s see how that translates to player values.

As you might imagine, Panini football cases were flying off the shelves after the Chiefs’ Super Bowl victory. A 15% increase in card worth tells us Mahomes’ season performance had a definitive impact on prices.

Additional Considerations

It’s worth pointing out that we’ve focused on the most well-known rookie cards to track each player’s performance impact. These price change trends might not be the same for every alternative player card. For example, a non-rookie Patrick Mahomes card would not necessarily grow in value after a Super Bowl win.

Market timings are another big consideration here. Card prices tend to peak before big games, like the Super Bowl and All-Stars, driven by hype and speculation about card worth and player performances. This can significantly inflate card prices beyond what you might reasonably expect. When that happens, you might see a slight downward correction in card prices after the game as the hype dies down. 

Collect The All-Time Greats

If you like tracking player values and finding the next season’s superstars, you’ll love what the Ultimate Collector’s Cave™ has in store for you. Get great deals at Giant Sports Cards, the ultimate sports card store, with free shipping on orders over $199 and day 1 access to new sports card releases.